You say the beginning of the civil war began last spring, but Ukraine may finally be on the verge of a legitimate revolt of the people against the government. The color revolutions in 2004 and 2014 were organized from abroad (despite the misleading representation of the mass media such as popular movements), to achieve geopolitical objectives concrete on behalf of the West, then discrediting as real work and expounding on the nature. Although Ukraine has not had a revolution (organized by Ukrainians for Ukrainians), it does not mean it is not imminent, having all the "ingredients" ready. Three recent developments indicate that the country is far closer to a revolution than most observers pretend, and if the population takes the initiative taking the opportunity in front of him, could reverse the disastrous policies of the regime before it's too late.
Ban booksKiev has decided to ban various books of Russian authors, especially the works of the famous crusading anti-color revolution and the historic Nikolai Starikov and presidential adviser Sergei Glaziev. These in particular are extremely critical of the regime, and it seems that Kiev sees them as threats to their ideological dominoes. The prohibition of the check book within the existing political oppression against all political dissidents, media and ordinary citizens. The authorities clearly express that any contrary opinion will tolerate and try to control the information received by the population. This should be seen as nothing more than fear of his nationality because if Kiev and its representatives were confident of their own domain, they would have no need to be so authoritarian. The fact that we now take the extreme step and advertised to ban certain books speaks of heightened paranoia, which in turn can be read (pun intended) as a serious threat by citizens who believe they face. The fact is, and it may not be mere paranoia, the objective reality of some elements of society, and not only the neo Nazis battalions (though for their own reasons), who are preparing to rebel against Kiev.
The threat of the Russian embargo on foodThe latest news from Moscow is Medvedev announce the campaign of counter-sanctions "extend to Albania, Montenegro, Iceland and Liechtenstein and, subject to certain conditions, Ukraine". Specifying warned that if Ukraine goes on the Association Agreement with the EU economy, which is expected to enter into force early next year, its agricultural products will be subject to the same restrictions. The ban on imports of fruit and vegetables last October has already threatened the loss of a market of 51m for Ukrainian producers, and to include all agricultural products could be catastrophic for the economy already on its knees. According to Business New Europe, agriculture is the largest industry today (thanks mostly to the drop in production now with the war on Donbas) and the only one to record growth last year; then, if Ukraine's exports to the main trading partner are excluded, the consequences could very well be fatal. A further point on this subject, it should be noted that it is very unlikely that exports could be redirected to the EU, because domestic producers already howl of pain for the misery inflicted by the economic-sanctions against Russia and are bravely competing in a saturated market. It would be a political move fatal to any government of the European Union give priority to Ukrainian agricultural products on their own, especially since the European Union is suffering the worst crisis in the milk for thirty years and can not absorb any Ukrainian imports. If Ukraine can not sell their products to Europe the excess that would originally finished in Russia will remain on the domestic market precipitating the Ocollapse of prices, foreshadowing the sudden collapse of the whole agriculture. This in turn would affect the country's ability to feed themselves, and that is expensive foreign food (probably with GMO products in the United States) would be imported to meet the demand. With less and less profitable farming, agricultural land would be sold at cost price to foreign companies (again probably the US, in particular Monsanto), thus ushering in the foreign acquisition complete one of the richest agricultural regions in the world. This disastrous scenario can be avoided, however, provided that the Ukrainians take urgent action to change the government before the end of the year, bringing the examination of subsequent developments.
The Committee for the Salvation of UkraineLast but not least, one of the most important, although not shown, aspects that could push the Ukrainians a real revolution is the establishment of the Committee for the Salvation of Ukraine (CSU), the government in exile in Moscow. As the saying goes, "better late than never" that seems quite suitable to the case. From what we can discern, the CSU is an idea of former Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov, and although it is not the leader (Vladimir Alejnik is), seems to direct the scene. Azarov promised that if they come to power, the CSU will hold new elections immediately, free and fair, but for this to happen "asks all citizens, political parties, unions and social movements to unite and restore order to our house through an effort Joint ". The point, apparently, is to unite civil society organizations and citizens in a coordinated anti-government campaign in the belief that it can prove to be a pivotal turning point for the regime. Almost every observer would agree that Kiev will never leave power without a fight, but Azarov does not mention violence in the upcoming fight, although you can understand that would be a logical response to the harsh repression of the State; some supporters may decide to react in this way. Today the CSU does not seem to inspire much enthusiasm, but this could change with time. After all, the organization is not perfect (and much of its composition and activities is still mysterious and unopened) m but symbolically stands out as the first realistic form of opposition to the government of Majdan, helped by the fact of being abroad, safe from the clutches of Kiev. The most important thing today, however, is that the organization will probably build a network of support cells in the Ukraine, in order to build a unified platform anti-government from which to challenge the state. This means that the CSU would essentially act as a coordinating committee of campaigns in the country, the public events (when the time is right), and perhaps, after being violently repressed, also of hybrid warfare. Speaking of protests and responsibilities and interests of the CSU, if ever there is a great social environment to test theories of Gene Sharp on "from dictatorship to democracy" and "there are no realistic alternatives", this is the contemporary Ukraine, where there is a certain dictatorship. If the legitimate people's revolution occurred in Ukraine, then it will be sure that the CSU will have a leading role and probably will use the event to catapult with its leadership from Moscow to Kiev.
ConclusionsNever before Ukraine is close to a legitimate revolution today. Many people were afraid of the new regime of coup in February 2014, but not many, out of Crimea and Donbas, publicly demonstrated against it. When this happened, such as in Odessa in May of that year, they were horribly killed and criminals protected by justice (intentionally). Some people, on the uncertain themselves to resist the regime, decided to "try" passively and see what ultimately do for his own good. Nearly 18 months later, the authorities of Majdan do nothing but divide the country with civil war, murder of thousands of civilians and economic crash, and the time is spent with ridiculous drawn to 'blame Russia', increasingly stale and implausible at the majority of the population. The problems of Ukraine since the overthrow of Yanukovich are entirely attributable to the new authorities, and it appears that part of the Ukrainians finally understands, therefore Kiev instigates other paranoia to suppress independent thinking, coming outrageously to ban books. The Ukrainian media could be politically misleading, but most of them are smart enough to know that the country is falling apart and that it is increasingly difficult to make ends meet. With the ultimatum of sanctions against the Russian-Ukraine, some may finally despair enough to go against the government, while aware of the likely repression (or worse) would suffer. However, these individuals probably do not have the sense of organized leadership, and here enters the CSU. It is assumed that they will not act publicly, not having shown any form of underground presence in Ukraine, no matter how small, and you might conclude (according to the same Azov) that this is conducive to mass anti-government activities, and who will do everything to support them . According to this logic, and putting two and two, the CSU could very well organize this movement collecting disaffected segments of the Ukrainian society, leading to regime change before the end of the year. If the authorities of Majdan remain in power and do not backtrack on the agreement of economic association with the EU, Ukraine will sink deeper into a crisis that could inadvertently change the paranoia of Kiev on regime change in solid reality.
Andrew Korybko
PS: And little serve the intervention of foreign decisions as happened in the past in this collective outcome of social despair.Google translation.
