АНАЛИЗ: что произойдет "ПОСЛЕ европейских рынках? Три сценария с точкой в ​​ГОРОДЕ

То, что произошло понедельник на финансовых рынках - с волной насилия и спред BTP- Бунд падает на фондовой бирже в Милане - можно рассматривать как закуску , что мы могли ожидать в ближайшие европейские выборы, намеченные на воскресенье, 25 мая.
В управлении рисками это всегда полезно делать так называемый "что если" , или предсказать все возможные сценарии и возможные контрмеры. Эта дисциплина за рубежом используется не только для прогнозирования потенциальных катастроф , но и вполитической и экономической , и вот что мы будем делать в этой статье.
Так давайте понять, что сценарии можно ожидать в результате европейских выборах , собирается в порядке убывания вероятности.
А) Движения и анти EUR у получить четкое заявление в отдельных странах. Под пропорциональной избирательной системе с чистым избирательного порога , они могли бы получить относительное большинство в парламенте в Брюсселе . По прогнозам , эти движения даются между 20 и 32% в зависимости от страны . Исключительные результаты , но не может быть достаточным для обеспечения абсолютное большинство мест . В этом случае , скорее всего, станет своего рода "большой переполненный" между PSE и СИЗ ( два еврогрупп историки ) во имя сохранения ЕС. Это здорово ( и мы могли бы добавить стыдно ) свалили сценарий уже ожидается и надеялись на старой инструмент политики как Романо Проди , который никогда не говорит наугад. Союз между СИЗ и PSE будет служить для блокирования любой проект демократических реформ ЕС и механизма единой валюты , обеспечивая тем самым статус-кво хищника Германия благосостояния за счет остальной части Европы и домена непревзойденными интересы банковских групп для удовлетворения потребностей людей .
Чтобы быть в состоянии переварить в этом уникальном монстра недемократические европейских граждан , мы ожидаем ряд аварий фондовом рынке с понедельника 26 мая , возможно, в сочетании с взрывом спред между итальянскими и испанскими государственными облигациями и немецкими . В этот момент , это вызовет СМИ кричать риску распада Евросоюза и евро с передачами апокалиптического будущего нищеты, разрушения и войн в Европе ( не верите нам ? Попробуйте посмотреть рекламу , которые выходят на сегодня Рай в пользу УП ) . В тот момент, единственным спасением является именно большой коалиции , чтобы сохранить ЕС и евро , уверяя будущее нищеты и отчаяния , да реально, во всех европейских граждан . Намек на это рассматривается понедельник, 19 Мая , с тяжелыми падений на фондовом рынке и настройки до распространения . В чем причина? В результате против традиционных партий в пользу и и Греции , с отчетливым Расширенный Siryza и Золотой Зари.
Б) Движения и анти- и и анти EUR превзойдет все ожидания и достигла абсолютное большинство мест в Европейском парламенте. В этом случае было бы открыть сценарий совершенно новый и неожиданный для всего континента . Такое заявление будет означать глубокое переосмысление не только единой валюты , но и саму концепцию и. Пожалуйста, обратите внимание : это не значит, возвращение к довоенной национализма опасной , но к более демократическому видению и и , прежде всего, возврат к национальному суверенитету и поэтому демократии. Это сценарий боялись Германии , которая будет увидеть угрозу своей гегемонии на континенте о политике жесткой экономии , которая была в состоянии навязать всем народам. На данный момент это очень вероятно , что немецкие банки могут начать делать спекуляции по суверенным облигациям стран, наиболее в беду за " сорвать банк " приписывая других ответственность . Порог евро долларобменный курс является более чем приемлемым для « новой марки " , в то время как это совершенно неприемлемо для остальной части Европы. Что Меркель не хочет , вы берете на себя ответственность за конец евро ( это никогда не взяла на себя ответственность от первого лица на протяжении всей своей политической карьеры ) или выход Германии из единой валюты. Немецкие банки были предметом спекуляции запрограммированной заставить отставки тогдашнего премьер-министра Сильвио Берлускони , так что они не будут иметь проблем , чтобы сделать то же самое игру . С спреды риска и стремительного роста задолженности и Европейский парламент враждебную новой политики жесткой экономии , Германия будет "вынужден" выйти , чтобы сохранить своих граждан и свои предприятия от стихийных бедствий один голос " популистской ". В то же детей , которые не принимают поражение и выбросить игрушки , Германия может сделать макет преступление и уйти, потому что они "вынуждены" .
С) Одним из традиционных партий , ЕНП или PES , удается получить большинство в Европейском парламенте . Е ' сценарий менее вероятно , но и самый опасный из возможных. Помимо заявления фасада , два еврогрупп историки на самом деле две стороны одной медали обслуги интересам крупных банков и Германии. Их победа будет означать продолжение , действительно, ужесточение политики жесткой экономии , введенной Меркель и стран-сателлитов , осуждая весь континент на десятилетия бедности и безработицы . Мешки могут реагировать также , как великие экономические державы бы уверены в том, аналогичным результатов выборов. Однако уверенности в этом нет : финансовые рынки в значительной степени завышены , они могут решить , чтобы дать сильные показатели коррекции , что вызвало распродажи , однако, оправдывая это с ограниченными перспектив роста стран-участниц единой валюты.
Вы заметили? Все три сценария предусматривают возможность тяжелых снижение фондового рынка. В чем причина? Простой : выборы , независимо от результата , индексы являются " распухли " и пузырь готов лопнуть. Не хватает только мотивирующим фактором , но европейские выборы являются идеальным праймер: вне зависимости от их исхода , будет предлагать разумные причины начать нисходящую волну спекуляций.
Это означает, что избиратели проголосовали полностью игнорируя сигналы , которые идут от рынков : Угрозы " рынок хочет " являются дубина . Рынок , понимаемой как рационального оператора , не существует кроме как в умах экономистов. Существует предположение, и лошадь парк, третий путь в настоящее время не планируется .
Какие вопросы , поэтому , собирается голосовать и голосовать за модель Европы , которую вы хотите на будущее: с одной стороны народов Европы , где рынок сумел принести благосостояние народа ( Европейская социальная модель не преследовали вплоть до падения Берлинской стены. помните?пенсионного приемлемым , медицинского обслуживания , достойный этого имени , социальной защиты может дать мир людям ) , а с другой , что из всего континента с учетом требований финансов, где благосостояние защищены до нескольких тысяч людей и миллионы людей будут обречены на жизнь на краю существованию. Думаете, что это слишком пессимистично ? Иди и спросите миллионы граждан Греции без отопления и здравоохранения.
25 мая , однако, выходит , станет переломным эра для Европы.

ANALYSIS: WHAT WILL HAPPEN 'AFTER THE EUROPEAN MARKETS? THREE SCENARIOS WITH A POINT IN TOWN

What happened Monday on the financial markets - with the surge of violent and spred BTP -Bund falls on the Stock Exchange in Milan - can be seen as the appetizer of what we could expect the next European elections scheduled for Sunday, May 25 .
In risk management it is always wise to do the so-called "what if ", or predict all possible scenarios and possible countermeasures . This discipline abroad is used not only to predict potential disasters , but also in the political and economic , and that's what we'll do in this article.
So let us understand what scenarios we can expect as a result of the European elections , going in descending order of probability.
A) The movements and anti anti EUR u get a clear statement in the individual countries . Under the proportional electoral system with pure electoral threshold , they could obtain a relative majority in parliament in Brussels. According to the projections , these movements are given between 20 and 32% depending on the country . Exceptional results , but may not be sufficient to secure an absolute majority of seats. In this case most likely would become a sort of " big crowded " between PSE and PPE (the two EuroGroups historians) in the name of saving the eu. That 's great (and we might add shameful ) piled up a scenario is already expected and hoped for an old tool of politics as Romano Prodi , who never speaks at random. The union between the PPE and PSE would serve to block any project of democratic reform of the EU and the mechanism of the single currency , thus ensuring the status quo of a predator Germany welfare at the expense of the rest of Europe and a domain unchallenged the interests of banking groups to meet the needs of the people.
To be able to digest in this authentic monster undemocratic European citizens , we expect a number of stock market crashes since Monday, May 26 , perhaps in conjunction with the explosion of the spread between Italian and Spanish government bonds and German ones . At that point, it would trigger the media screaming at risk of collapse of the European Union and the euro with transmissions of apocalyptic future of misery , destruction and wars in Europe ( do not believe us ? Try to look the commercials that go on today Rai in favor of ue) . At that point, the only salvation is precisely the grand coalition to save the eu and the euro , assuring a future of poverty and despair , yes real , in all European citizens . A hint of this is seen Monday, May 19th , with heavy falls in the stock market and tweaking up the spread. The reason ? The result against the traditional parties in favor of u and Greece, with the distinct Advanced Siryza and Golden Dawn .
B) The movements and anti- u and anti EUR exceed all expectations and achieved an absolute majority of seats in the European parliament. In this case it would open a scenario totally new and unexpected for the entire continent . Such a statement would mean a profound rethinking not only of the single currency , but also the very concept of u . Please note: this does not mean return to pre-war nationalism dangerous , but to a more democratic vision of u and , above all, a return to national sovereignty and therefore of democracy. It is a scenario feared by Germany, which would see the threat to its hegemony on the continent about the policies of austerity that has been able to impose on all nations. At this point it is very likely that German banks could start making speculation on sovereign bonds of the countries most in trouble for " break the bank " attributing to others the responsibility . The exchange rate euro dollar threshold is a more than acceptable for the "new mark " , while it is completely untenable for the rest of Europe . What Merkel does not want to , you assume responsibility for the end of the euro ( it never assumed a responsibility in the first person throughout his political career ) or the exit of Germany from the single currency. German banks have been the subject of speculation programmed to force the resignation of the then Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi , so they would not have problems to make the same play . With spreads risk and skyrocketing debt and a European Parliament hostile to the new policies of austerity, Germany would be " forced " to go out to save its citizens and its businesses from disaster one vote " populist ." At the same children who do not accept the defeat and throw away the toys , Germany could make a mock offense and leave because they " forced " .
C) One of the traditional parties , the EPP or PES, manages to get a majority in the European parliament. E ' scenario less likely , but also the most dangerous of the possible ones. Beyond the statements of the facade , the two EuroGroups historians are actually two sides of the same coin subservient to the interests of big banks and Germany. Their victory would mean a continuation , indeed, the policy tightening austerity imposed by Merkel and the satellite countries , condemning the entire continent to decades of poverty and unemployment. The bags may respond well, as the great economic powers would feel reassured by a similar election results . However this is not certain : the financial markets are largely overestimated , they may decide to give a strong correction indices , sparking a sell-off , however, justifying it with the limited growth prospects of the countries participating in the single currency .
Have you noticed ? All three scenarios include the possibility of heavy stock market declines . The reason ? Simple: the election regardless of the outcome , the indexes are " swollen " and the bubble is ready to burst . What is missing is the motivating factor , but the European elections are the perfect primer : regardless of their outcome , will offer sensible reasons to start the downward wave of speculation .
This means that the voters have voted completely ignoring the signals that are coming from the markets : the threats of " the market wants " are blunt weapons . The market, understood as a rational operator , does not exist except in the minds of economists. There is speculation and the horse park , a third way is not currently scheduled .
What matters , therefore, is going to vote and vote for the model of Europe that you want for the future: on the one hand of the peoples of Europe , where the market has managed to bring the well-being of the people ( the European social model pursued until the fall of the Berlin Wall . remember ? a pension acceptable , a health service , worthy of the name , social safety nets can give peace to the people ) , on the other that of a continent subject to the requirements of finance, where the welfare is reserved to a few thousand people and millions of individuals are condemned to a life on the edge of subsistence. Think it's too pessimistic? Go and ask the millions of Greek citizens without heating and health care.
On May 25 , however, goes, will be a watershed era for Europe

ITALY PIU 'POOR MORE' VIOLENT MORE 'OLD''. HERE'S HOW 'THANK YOU BECOME THE EURO AND THE EU

More 'poor. More 'violent. More 'old. It unnecessarily more 'educated. And 'the image of Italy after six years of economic crisis, political and social in the photograph taken by the Research Center of CNA. "At this time our country has grown so overwhelming people at risk poverty 'and social exclusion - stresses the CNA -.

Are now over 18 million, nearly three million more 'of 2007, and accounted for 14.8% of all Europeans economically marginalized. These are people forced to live in households with income below 60% of median income, who can not afford a proper meal at least once every two days and, if they work, they do so to a lesser extent.

Worse than Italy in the European Union, only Greece and seven former communist countries.

Since 2007, the percentage of Italians who can not meet unexpected expenses, pay bills, heat the house, feed, and how you should 'rocketed from 6.8 to 14.5%. In Europe the inconvenience and 'grew more' just in Greece. Blame for the crisis, and 'true. But in the same year in Germany the number of Germans marginalized and 'decreased. Even the crisis, of course, not 'the same for everyone in Europe.

And in Italy, creates an additional element of social alarm: the boom of evictions for morosita '. In 2012 there are over 60 thousand, adding discomfort uncomfortable. "

Between 2007 and 2012 our country and 'become even more' insecure. In recent years, inform the Centre for Studies of the CNA, the offenses were up by 8, 7%. Strong increase above are crimes against property, which can be attributed mainly to the fall of the activities' economic: the thefts were up 32.5%, fraud and computer fraud by 21.8%. The crisis pushes families to look less and less to quality 'and crime', even international, took advantage.

This explains 'the exponential growth of the offenses of counterfeiting of trademarks and industrial products, more' than quadrupled. But the crisis has come to disturb and impoverish the relationships between people, as evidenced by the increase in incidents of personal violence, injuries from beatings. The economic and social uncertainty is reflected, inevitably, given the demographic you do not do more 'children. During the years of crisis, the birth rate ', already' low in Italy and 'declined further, from 9.7 to 8.9 births per thousand inhabitants. The age of 'media and' increased from less than 43 to 44 years.

And the weight of the elderly population and 'increased.

Now over-65s are one and a half children under the age of 15 and almost a third (32.7%) of the population in age 'work. And 'the more level' highest in Europe. It is an ominous sign. This indicator, in fact, measure the ability 'potential of the system to provide for the payment of pensions. A ticking time bomb. Yet, even 'cause you do not find employment, between 2007 and 2013 and' increased the level of education of the population. Increased by 23.9% graduates and 11, 9% of the graduates.

So 'to take 47.4% of the Italian holders of a diploma or a degree. But education does not guarantee a job, indeed. If, in fact, before the crisis diploma ensured a similar insertion in the labor market, in practice, to what degree, today the odds 'of unemployment and a graduate' next to those who have only completed middle school.

It is also explained by these numbers, underscores the investigation of the Research Center of the CNA, the explosion of NEETs, young people between 15 and 34 years who do not work, do not study, do not perform activities' training, which rose in seven years more than 750 thousand units', to nearly 3.6 million. 27.3% of NEETs are graduates (compared to 17% in 2007), 21.7% college graduates, compared to 15.9 per cent at the beginning of the crisis.

The euro was supposed to bring prosperity, social peace, and development work. Instead, this is the bleak picture he has produced.

Sorry if the translation is not perfect

Italy:Tg1 celebrates the caste

Tg1 celebrates the caste. The country dies.
Monday, April 14, 2014

Tonight is the night of Monday, April 14, at fifteen million Italian TG1 has removed doubt - they had had - what is the Caste. Tg1 opened the 20:00 edition on "appointments of the Italian State-owned companies," Eni and her sisters. The presenter has rattled off names and slide - that does so much tgrenzi - with faccioni of nominees and even more in the support of a service to follow.

Today is the day when the Bank of Italy said that the public debt has exceeded 130% and exceeded two thousand one hundred and seven billion of Euros! Seventeen billion more even between January and February.

Today is the day in which the data have been made public in the consumption of fuels in Italy in the first quarter of 2014, and that is now: fall of 3.5% on 2013 when it fell by 28% on 2012.

Today is the day on which the trade unions, the ICFTU to be precise, did they know that another 300,000 workers are on the verge of dismissal: are finished in extraordinary layoff, the antechamber of the sidewalk.

Today is the day on which the neo-Nazi militias and the military coup of Kiev have invaded at gunpoint regions of Eastern Ukraine, with gun battles - civil war - and dead on the street.

Today is the day they left the survey data for the European in France, and the party of Marine Le Pen is in the lead on the center-right, while the Socialist Hollande with which Renzi has made "the axis for Europe" crashed, ten points behind.

Today is the day in which cricket has planted a knife in the wound of the Democratic Party, an ally of the men of old P2 to implement the program of Licio Gelli, written 30 years ago and there to read: via Provinces, via the Senate, enough of this threatening democracy. But the Democratic Party has looked at the picture that Cricket has published. Did not read the article.

Today, the TG1 has opened with the appointments wanted by Renzi of boyars state that replace other boyars of State, and this for the TG1 is the most important news of the day.

Today, Casta was celebrated by Tg1. While the country dies.

The disappearance of the news from the great Italian newspapers have become propaganda organs pro EU.

Assuage, deceive, narcotizzare: these three verbs better than others describe the method used in this pre-election period by the great Italian press considered "authoritative." Anything to say no and not give information that could lead the reader - soon voter - to decide to vote for Eurosceptic parties.

And when you just can not censor the news because - unfortunately - published by organizations such as Istat beyond the control of the oligarchy Italian publishing, journalists come into play-fakes: skyrocketing unemployment? But no, it already happened in 1977, rest assured we are already left once, we'll make today. Too bad it's fake. The Corriere della Sera newspaper to which I refer. He pubbicato Istat data on unemployment (arriving at 12 percent and go in this early 2014) being able to write that "Italy has returned to the unemployment of 1977." Repeat it false: in 1977 it was 7% (Istat). But it is not an oversight, it is a sweetening of the reality that the leaders of this paper systematically put in place to prevent that readers come to the obvious conclusion that the euro is a disaster and the European Union a death trap.

The same technique is applied to the current uninformative government led by a guy never voted, never elected, with no democratic mandate to be Prime Minister, Mr. Renzi from Florence.

Renzi appointed at the top of the Legislative Office of the Presidency of the Council of Florence Palazzo Chigi a traffic warden. She has a degree in law, for heaven's sake. Even though there have been ministers summit of center-left governments with a solid education studies fermatasi the eighth grade, as Ottaviano Del Turkish Finance Minister Prodi govenro. However, if the horrid Berlusconi had appointed the head of the brigade Arcore same role assigned to her by Renzi favorite traffic warden when he was mayor of Florence, probably a few lines on the front page De Bortoli, Mauro and other "priests of Italian journalism "would have written.

In this case, the silence of lead (typeface)

Renzi has trumpeted cutting the cost of politics to begin by the provinces, only in this case is false: the cutting of salaries (attendance) of the provincial councilors together are worth 50 million Euros per year. The staff of the provinces - which remains in the organic public administration - costs about € 500 million a year. Renzi has not cut the cost of the provinces, which would give the idea - said so - that there is no more affectively. Renzi has cut a tenth the cost of 100% and the elective democracy. But there is another news about this "cut": Grllo noted that the elimination of the Province was one of the key points of P2. Gelli in people wrote in that notorious program of Democratic Rebirth "Provinces should be deleted." Renzi was able to put "finally" in practice, but in the mainstream press does not care put into light.

If you switch to the economy, then, reading Sole 24 Ore, Corriere della Sera, Repubblica and Printing, the disconnect from reality breaks through in the pathological. It 's all a celebration, while the real country dies. Gusts from the titles of articles dripping with happiness for the spread that the great falls, the stock market that has surpassed the 20,000 points, Renzi, who triumphs in the polls, the economy that gives clear signs of "recovery", the GDP going up, the EU loves us.

False. All false. Polls domesticated, but spreads down public debt rises (nearly 2.1 trillion of Euros!) GDP which crashed (had to be more than 1% is not even the half and tends to zero), bag high prey because the most colossal bubble of the last 10 years (overestimated by 40%) and then deflation. Deflation that comes with large print our local nuisance, marginally, like the memory of a bad dream from early morning chase, when it is a cancer that is devouring Europe.

In this climate of the last few days of dictatorship, Renzi also rampant on television. It ads a day, hoping that those of the previous day to be forgotten. He said that by April would have been paid all the debts of governments. Bales. Missing 80 billion to do it. He said that the electoral law would be approved by March 31. Bales, is not even on the agenda for April. He said he would give 80 € to all payroll since May. Bales, did not find the money. He said he would go to Europe to plead the reasons Italy. Bales, went to reaffirm that it will respect all treaties, including the Fiscal Compact that will kill definitively Italy.

But these lies, not even a line of newspapers and television. Only on our online newspaper and a few other news sites on the web.

As long as we will let you do.