ANALYSIS: WHAT WILL HAPPEN 'AFTER THE EUROPEAN MARKETS? THREE SCENARIOS WITH A POINT IN TOWN

What happened Monday on the financial markets - with the surge of violent and spred BTP -Bund falls on the Stock Exchange in Milan - can be seen as the appetizer of what we could expect the next European elections scheduled for Sunday, May 25 .
In risk management it is always wise to do the so-called "what if ", or predict all possible scenarios and possible countermeasures . This discipline abroad is used not only to predict potential disasters , but also in the political and economic , and that's what we'll do in this article.
So let us understand what scenarios we can expect as a result of the European elections , going in descending order of probability.
A) The movements and anti anti EUR u get a clear statement in the individual countries . Under the proportional electoral system with pure electoral threshold , they could obtain a relative majority in parliament in Brussels. According to the projections , these movements are given between 20 and 32% depending on the country . Exceptional results , but may not be sufficient to secure an absolute majority of seats. In this case most likely would become a sort of " big crowded " between PSE and PPE (the two EuroGroups historians) in the name of saving the eu. That 's great (and we might add shameful ) piled up a scenario is already expected and hoped for an old tool of politics as Romano Prodi , who never speaks at random. The union between the PPE and PSE would serve to block any project of democratic reform of the EU and the mechanism of the single currency , thus ensuring the status quo of a predator Germany welfare at the expense of the rest of Europe and a domain unchallenged the interests of banking groups to meet the needs of the people.
To be able to digest in this authentic monster undemocratic European citizens , we expect a number of stock market crashes since Monday, May 26 , perhaps in conjunction with the explosion of the spread between Italian and Spanish government bonds and German ones . At that point, it would trigger the media screaming at risk of collapse of the European Union and the euro with transmissions of apocalyptic future of misery , destruction and wars in Europe ( do not believe us ? Try to look the commercials that go on today Rai in favor of ue) . At that point, the only salvation is precisely the grand coalition to save the eu and the euro , assuring a future of poverty and despair , yes real , in all European citizens . A hint of this is seen Monday, May 19th , with heavy falls in the stock market and tweaking up the spread. The reason ? The result against the traditional parties in favor of u and Greece, with the distinct Advanced Siryza and Golden Dawn .
B) The movements and anti- u and anti EUR exceed all expectations and achieved an absolute majority of seats in the European parliament. In this case it would open a scenario totally new and unexpected for the entire continent . Such a statement would mean a profound rethinking not only of the single currency , but also the very concept of u . Please note: this does not mean return to pre-war nationalism dangerous , but to a more democratic vision of u and , above all, a return to national sovereignty and therefore of democracy. It is a scenario feared by Germany, which would see the threat to its hegemony on the continent about the policies of austerity that has been able to impose on all nations. At this point it is very likely that German banks could start making speculation on sovereign bonds of the countries most in trouble for " break the bank " attributing to others the responsibility . The exchange rate euro dollar threshold is a more than acceptable for the "new mark " , while it is completely untenable for the rest of Europe . What Merkel does not want to , you assume responsibility for the end of the euro ( it never assumed a responsibility in the first person throughout his political career ) or the exit of Germany from the single currency. German banks have been the subject of speculation programmed to force the resignation of the then Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi , so they would not have problems to make the same play . With spreads risk and skyrocketing debt and a European Parliament hostile to the new policies of austerity, Germany would be " forced " to go out to save its citizens and its businesses from disaster one vote " populist ." At the same children who do not accept the defeat and throw away the toys , Germany could make a mock offense and leave because they " forced " .
C) One of the traditional parties , the EPP or PES, manages to get a majority in the European parliament. E ' scenario less likely , but also the most dangerous of the possible ones. Beyond the statements of the facade , the two EuroGroups historians are actually two sides of the same coin subservient to the interests of big banks and Germany. Their victory would mean a continuation , indeed, the policy tightening austerity imposed by Merkel and the satellite countries , condemning the entire continent to decades of poverty and unemployment. The bags may respond well, as the great economic powers would feel reassured by a similar election results . However this is not certain : the financial markets are largely overestimated , they may decide to give a strong correction indices , sparking a sell-off , however, justifying it with the limited growth prospects of the countries participating in the single currency .
Have you noticed ? All three scenarios include the possibility of heavy stock market declines . The reason ? Simple: the election regardless of the outcome , the indexes are " swollen " and the bubble is ready to burst . What is missing is the motivating factor , but the European elections are the perfect primer : regardless of their outcome , will offer sensible reasons to start the downward wave of speculation .
This means that the voters have voted completely ignoring the signals that are coming from the markets : the threats of " the market wants " are blunt weapons . The market, understood as a rational operator , does not exist except in the minds of economists. There is speculation and the horse park , a third way is not currently scheduled .
What matters , therefore, is going to vote and vote for the model of Europe that you want for the future: on the one hand of the peoples of Europe , where the market has managed to bring the well-being of the people ( the European social model pursued until the fall of the Berlin Wall . remember ? a pension acceptable , a health service , worthy of the name , social safety nets can give peace to the people ) , on the other that of a continent subject to the requirements of finance, where the welfare is reserved to a few thousand people and millions of individuals are condemned to a life on the edge of subsistence. Think it's too pessimistic? Go and ask the millions of Greek citizens without heating and health care.
On May 25 , however, goes, will be a watershed era for Europe