Following the media, Russia is apparently about to experience a major crisis in a position to put the domestic economy to its knees. It 's true?
The answer is no, and is obtained by applying elementary economic dynamics completely divorced from the political will that would paint a different situation. We see the 'against' amplified by the media to explain then, with the greatest possible clarity, because those 'against' are, instead of the 'pro' for Russia.
The 'AGAINST'. In order to support the devaluation of the ruble, the Central Bank of Russia is burning its reserves. The amount of the reserves until now consumed to support the ruble is about $ 100 billion out of a total of about 450 billion available. 50% of tax revenues in Russia comes from the energy sector, strategic sector for Russia. Some operators are exposed signaling that Russia would need a rate of about $ 110 a barrel to break even the budget of 2015. The collapse of oil prices "would be" a problem for Russia because it causes a contraction of the domestic economy .
The 'PRO'. The ruble devalued just to compensate for the collapse of oil (Russia being a major manufacturer is rather unlikely that they were not ready for such an eventuality).
The procedure is as follows: Russia is an oil-producing country and derived from its sale nearly 50% of government revenues, for every dollar received in less exports of crude oil, now derives a greater amount of ruble, due to the depreciation . Let's take an example to make the concept clear.
In June, when the price was at its maximum ($ 115 a barrel), a dollar is still traded against 34.40 rubles. The calculation is simple: for every barrel of oil exported, Russia incassava 3,700 rubles. With the collapse in prices of around $ 65 per barrel, and with a change that sees a dollar worth 57 rubles, Russia continues to collect exactly the same amount of rubles of six months ago, when the oil market was booming.
The confirmation of what we write is mathematics. In November (included) in 2014, the Russian state budget recorded a fiscal surplus of 1.27 trillion rubles ($ 23 billion). Compared with the same period last year when the surplus was 600 billion rubles in 2012 was 798 billion rubles, and in 2011 was 1.34 trillion rubles.
It 'clear that the collapse of the ruble is a bargain for the Russian government, which erased (this does not tell anyone) 24 weekly auctions this year, thanks to the fact that the performance of public accounts has allowed him to avoid refinance stellar rates imposed by the market.
Obviously, there is to report some problems, we find it at the bottom scraping the "barrel". A something had to appeal misinformation. Inflation tends to double digits, must necessarily be opposed by the Russian Central Bank, the procedure to compress inflation in Economics is to make a monetary tightening. Monetary tightening is an operation performed by a central bank aimed at reducing the supply of money circulating in the economy. The instrument is used to make an increase in the discount rate, and will have the effect of sending the Russian economy in "mild" recession in 2015.
At this point it is understandable the objection of those who want us to believe that the recession is not a good thing. Of course it's not, but objectively speaking comforted by the Economic Science, can not release the objector (intellectually correct) from considering that we are talking about a country in the "war" with the West, which apparently has already accepted the price a temporary economic crisis. The Russian Central Bank is only preserving the public finances, there is no catastrophe Russian, with all due respect to those who wait "blindly" to the contrary.
