THE CONFIDENCE INDEX OF ENTREPRENEURS IN THE EUROZONE COLLAPSED AND 'AS IF WE HAD RETURNED TO 2014, THE EPICENTER OF THE CRISIS

Tuesday, 11 December 2018

LONDON - The confidence index of entrepreneurs in the Eurozone countries
fell to its lowest level this December for four years, according to
several British newspapers, following the results of a study carried out
by the German research group Sentix.

The economic newspaper "Financial Times" in particular reports that the
index this month has fallen further by 0.3 percent from the level of 8.8
recorded in November, falling below the level of December 2014: this is
the fourth consecutive monthly decline; the decrease is higher than the
expectations of analysts, who expected an index dropped to 8.1.

The cause of this increase in distrust, explains the report quoted by
the "Financial Times", is to be found in the fears of the business world
for trade wars in defense of industry and technology U.S. unleashed by
U.S. President Donald Trump, for the tug-of-war on the Budget Law
between the Government of Italy and the European Commission in Brussels,
for the violent social unrest in France that forced President Macron to
cancel many taxes he wanted to introduce, especially on fuels, and
increase by 10 billion euros the economic support to poor French
families and finally for the uncertainty about Brexit.

"Considering the current economic situation and the global economic
forecasts - said the director of Sentix, Manfred Huebner, speaking with
the City of London newspaper - there are virtually no glimmers of hope
for the Eurozone anywhere.

The sub-index of investors' and entrepreneurs' assessments of the
current global economic situation fell to 20.0 from 29.3 in the previous
month, while the sub-index of future prospects fell to -18.8 from -9.8
in November.

As far as Great Britain in particular is concerned, the overall
macro-economic data are not as negative as one would expect given the
climate of uncertainty over Brexit, exacerbated by the decision taken
yesterday by Prime Minister Theresa May to postpone until a date to be
decided the crucial vote in Parliament, which should have been held
today Tuesday '11 in the House of Commons, on the agreement for the
divorce of the EU that she signed on November 25 last with the President
of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker:

As the Financial Times itself reports in another article published
today, the productivity of Britain's economic system is better than
expected. The results of the recalculation of data carried out by the
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the "club"
of the most developed countries in the world, say this.

Reconsidering the way in which the hourly productivity of workers in
different countries is calculated, the OECD has certified that Great
Britain has significantly reduced the historic gap with its main
economic rivals: now British hourly productivity is "only" 16 percent
lower than that of the United States and 10 percent lower than that of
France; this also means, comment the newspaper, that the productivity of
labor in Britain has now returned to exceed that of Italy. In addition,
unemployment in Great Britain has fallen to the levels of the 1970s
(4.5%) and the GDP forecast for 2019, expected to be around +1.5%, is
higher than the forecast for Germany.

In short, the real sick person is the Eurozone, according to the British
press and the German economic research centres, and the numbers support
the judgment.Tuesday, 11 December 2018

LONDON - The confidence index of entrepreneurs in the Eurozone countries
fell to its lowest level this December for four years, according to
several British newspapers, following the results of a study carried out
by the German research group Sentix.

The economic newspaper "Financial Times" in particular reports that the
index this month has fallen further by 0.3 percent from the level of 8.8
recorded in November, falling below the level of December 2014: this is
the fourth consecutive monthly decline; the decrease is higher than the
expectations of analysts, who expected an index dropped to 8.1.

The cause of this increase in distrust, explains the report quoted by
the "Financial Times", is to be found in the fears of the business world
for trade wars in defense of industry and technology U.S. unleashed by
U.S. President Donald Trump, for the tug-of-war on the Budget Law
between the Government of Italy and the European Commission in Brussels,
for the violent social unrest in France that forced President Macron to
cancel many taxes he wanted to introduce, especially on fuels, and
increase by 10 billion euros the economic support to poor French
families and finally for the uncertainty about Brexit.

"Considering the current economic situation and the global economic
forecasts - said the director of Sentix, Manfred Huebner, speaking with
the City of London newspaper - there are virtually no glimmers of hope
for the Eurozone anywhere.

The sub-index of investors' and entrepreneurs' assessments of the
current global economic situation fell to 20.0 from 29.3 in the previous
month, while the sub-index of future prospects fell to -18.8 from -9.8
in November.

As far as Great Britain in particular is concerned, the overall
macro-economic data are not as negative as one would expect given the
climate of uncertainty over Brexit, exacerbated by the decision taken
yesterday by Prime Minister Theresa May to postpone until a date to be
decided the crucial vote in Parliament, which should have been held
today Tuesday '11 in the House of Commons, on the agreement for the
divorce of the EU that she signed on November 25 last with the President
of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker:

As the Financial Times itself reports in another article published
today, the productivity of Britain's economic system is better than
expected. The results of the recalculation of data carried out by the
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the "club"
of the most developed countries in the world, say this.

Reconsidering the way in which the hourly productivity of workers in
different countries is calculated, the OECD has certified that Great
Britain has significantly reduced the historic gap with its main
economic rivals: now British hourly productivity is "only" 16 percent
lower than that of the United States and 10 percent lower than that of
France; this also means, comment the newspaper, that the productivity of
labor in Britain has now returned to exceed that of Italy. In addition,
unemployment in Great Britain has fallen to the levels of the 1970s
(4.5%) and the GDP forecast for 2019, expected to be around +1.5%, is
higher than the forecast for Germany.

In short, the real sick person is the Eurozone, according to the British
press and the German economic research centres, and the numbers support
the judgment.