THE GERMAN PRESS: ITALY LEAVES THE EURO WITH PARTIAL BANKRUPTCY OR DOES THE REFORMS REQUESTED BY THE EU

BERLINO - The German press clearly analyses the Italian situation and
publishes data that in Italy are fooled by the vast majority of the
media, oriented towards the centre-left led by the PD and in favour of
its vassal positions of the European Commission.

Europe could make a big leap next week, forward or towards the unknown -
writes the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung on the front page today
- ". Next Sunday, Italy will elect a new Parliament and Germany will
know whether the members of the Spd Social Democratic Party will agree
to a new Grand Coalition with the Centrodestra Union".

The Italian and German results could both influence the future of
Europe,"the newspaper continues. Italy is one of the most indebted
countries in the world, where the financial and social situation is
tense. So far the country has been governed by a pragmatic centre-left
government, led in the last year by the Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni.
If the next government will be able to control the stagnant economy, the
high debt and the discouraged population is an open question and the
mood of Italians is pretty bad".

"According to a Eurobarometer survey - quoted in this article in the
German daily newspaper - as many as 74% of the Italian population
believes that the situation in their country is negative, 80% of them
make this negative judgement on the economy and 68% on public services.
No less than 72% are disliked by the authorities and the judiciary, 78%
by the government and 83% by the parties that support it".

"46% of Italians - continues to write the Sueddeutsche Zeitung - believe
that their country would have a better future if it were outside the
eurozone. Although Mario Draghi leads the European Central Bank, no
other country has such low approval for the euro. In Germany there may
be political fatigue after the long years of the Great Coalition, but
confidence in the performance of the country and its institutions is
still high. In France and Spain the crisis is not yet completely
overcome in terms of trust, but given the mood of the Italians it is not
surprising that the polls give the 5 Star Movement as the first party".

"Perhaps - adds the Sueddeutsche Zeitung - the Centrodright coalition
around Silvio Berlusconi could obtain the majority and the name of
Antonio Tajani as possible President of the Council could instil
security precarious situation, but it will be necessary to see the
result of Matteo Salvini's League, with the Eurosceptic positions of the
League".

"The economic situation - he continues to write in this long article of
analysis - is particularly difficult: while in Germany, France or Spain
the citizens have on average about 25% more per capita income than in
1999, according to estimates of the International Monetary Fund, in
Italy the same thing did not happen, on the contrary, the result is even
negative. Moreover, Italian banks are seated on mountains of bad debts,
making new investments difficult. Young people are fleeing abroad
because they have no prospects. The share of graduates among the
population aged 25-64 is only 18 percent (in Germany and 28 percent, in
France 34 and 35 percent in Spain). According to Ocse, Italy lies
between Mexico and Turkey. The possible Italian bankruptcy jeopardises
the stability of the entire monetary union".

Then - concludes the daily newspaper - of the two: either Italy leaves
the euro and declares a partial bankruptcy or in some way manages to
build an investment and reform programme, which allows a lasting
stabilization. A revival of the Italian economy is hardly conceivable
without the help of the rest of the eurozone, so a Great Coalition in
Germany could be the last chance to stabilize the Eurozone. If the Spd
members reject GroKo, then it is highly questionable whether Germany
will gather the political strength needed to stabilise the euro. You
could jump".